Daron Acemoglu, David Autor, Jonathon Hazell, and Pascual Restrepo
We study the impact of AI on labor markets, using establishment level data on vacancies with detailed occupational information comprising the near-universe of online vacancies in the US from 2010 onwards. We classify establishments as “AI exposed” when their workers engage in tasks that are compatible with current AI capabilities. We document rapid growth in AI related vacancies over 2010-2018 that is not limited to the Professional and Business Services and Information Technology sectors and is significantly greater in AI-exposed establishments. AI-exposed establishments are differentially eliminating vacancy postings that list a range of previously-posted skills while simultaneously posting skill requirements that were not previously listed. Establishment-level estimates suggest that AI-exposed establishments are reducing hiring in non-AI positions even as they expand AI hiring. However, we find no discernible impact of AI exposure on employment or wages at the occupation or industry level, implying that AI is currently substituting for humans in a subset of tasks but it is not yet having detectable aggregate labor market consequences.
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