Baby Busts and Growth Booms: Demographic Change and the Macroeconomy

The secular decline in birth rates across the globe over the past seven decades has slowed population growth, raised average ages, and reshaped labor markets and the macroeconomy. Contrary to the widespread expectation that these trends hamper economic growth, Blueprint PIs Daron Acemoglu and David Autor along with Keelan Beirne and Andrew Scott find that lower birth rates are associated with higher growth in GDP per working-age adult across countries and higher wage growth across US commuting zones, with no negative impact on aggregate GDP or earnings.