2024 Annual Report

On behalf of MIT Blueprint Labs, we would like to extend a heartfelt thank you for your support in 2024. This year at Blueprint, we studied critical issues in education, health care, and the workforce. Through several innovative policy initiatives, we also bridged the gap between research, policy, and practice to generate impact. We are excited to expand upon this work and further our policy impact in the new year.

Two Blueprint Affiliates won the 2024 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences. 

Blueprint Affiliates Daron Acemoglu and Simon Johnson received the 2024 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, alongside James A. Robinson  of the University of Chicago “for studies of how institutions are formed and affect prosperity.”

Learn more about their research and accomplishments.

In 2024, our faculty and affiliates released 16 groundbreaking research papers on education, health care, and the workforce. 

Understanding Family Decisions and Implementing Accurate, Equitable School Quality Measures

Despite school choice systems that allow students to attend schools outside their neighborhoods, unequal access to effective schools persists in many large districts. Family choices partially drive these inequalities. A study by Blueprint Affiliates Clémence Idoux and Viola Corradini examines families’ decisions and explores the role diverse middle schools play in changing decision-making and alleviating education inequalities. Read the policy brief and the working paper to learn more.

Blueprint researchers also studied measures of school quality in 2024. Blueprint Co-Directors Josh Angrist and Parag Pathak and Affiliates Peter Hull and Christopher Walters published a paper in American Economic Review: Insights which examines the relationships between school quality ratings, race, and a school’s impact on student success. Blueprint collaborated with New York City Public Schools to publish the measures on their School Performance Dashboard. Check out the research, Blueprint’s policy brief, and a write-up from MIT News.

Designing Effective Collaboration with AI in Medicine

In recent years, AI has become more prevalent in medicine. In two new papers, Blueprint Co-Director Nikhil Agarwal and co-authors examine AI’s role in radiology diagnostics. A publication in Nature Medicine provides valuable insight on how to design effective collaborations between radiologists and AI. Another publication in American Economic Association Papers and Proceedings compares AI and human predictions of rare diseases. The study shows that radiologists predict rare diseases no better than AI, contrary to one common hypothesis.

Illuminating New Technology’s Effects on Labor

Around 60% of current US employment is in “new work” introduced after 1940. Research by David Autor et al., recently published in the Quarterly Journal of Economics, studies the origins and content of new work and its effect on labor demand. New technologies can create demand for new forms of expertise, or they can replace existing jobs through automation. Learn more about this research in MIT News and on the Freakonomics podcast.

The 2018–2019 trade war between the US, China, and other US trade partners had economic and political consequences. A recent working paper from Blueprint Co-Director David Autor and co-authors finds that new import tariffs on foreign goods had no impact on US employment rates, while foreign retaliatory tariffs decreased US employment, particularly in agriculture. Nevertheless, these “Trump tariffs” appear to have been a political success: residents of regions more exposed to import tariffs became more likely to vote Republican. Axios and the Ezra Klein Show highlighted this work.

Throughout the year, we held outreach events to bridge the gaps between research, policy, and practice.

50 Years after Garrity: School Integration and Performance in Boston Public Schools

Fifty years after Boston’s landmark school integration decision, Blueprint reflected on education equity in Boston. In a panel discussion, we convened community members, practitioners, policymakers, and researchers to reflect on the legacy of school desegregation in Boston and discuss how to improve education for the city’s most disadvantaged students. Blueprint Co-Directors Josh Angrist and Parag Pathak and Senior Policy and Communications Associate Amanda Schmidt argued for a reexamination of Boston’s current system in a Boston Globe op-ed.

The MIT Shaping the Future of Work Initiative, led by Blueprint Co-Director David Autor and Affiliates Daron Acemoglu and Simon Johnson, launched in January. The Initiative applies economics research to identify innovative ways to move the economy onto a more equitable trajectory, with a central focus on revitalizing labor market opportunities for non-college workers.

Blueprint’s Charter School Research Collaborative advanced actionable charter school research by funding policy-relevant studies and fostering new research-practice partnerships. In 2024, the Collaborative funded 17 projects addressing pressing charter questions nationwide. Blueprint also hosted six matchmaking sessions that provided 113 charter stakeholders with opportunities to build new partnerships.

Research

Published Articles

Angrist, Joshua, Peter Hull, Parag Pathak, and Christopher Walters. “Credible School Value-Added with Undersubscribed School Lotteries.” The Review of Economics and Statistics 106(1) (January 2024): 1–19.

• Measuring a school’s contribution to student success is important for families, educators, and policymakers. However, measurement can be difficult; some schools may seem better because they attract students who are already doing well. To overcome this challenge, Blueprint Labs Co-Directors Joshua Angrist and Parag Pathak and Affiliates Peter Hull and Christopher Walters developed two measurements that more accurately capture a school’s performance. One measure also successfully accounts for missing data, which proved useful given data lapses in the COVID-19 pandemic.

Angrist, Joshua, Peter Hull, Parag Pathak, and Christopher Walters. “Race and the Mismeasure of School Quality.” American Economic Review: Insights 6(1) (March 2024): 20–37.

• Frequently used measures of school quality often face a common issue: higher-rated schools tend to have a greater share of white and affluent students. In a recent paper, Blueprint Labs Co-Directors Josh Angrist and Parag Pathak and Affiliates Peter Hull and Christopher Walters investigate the relationships between ratings, race, and school quality. They develop a measure that removes all correlation with race and predicts true school quality more accurately than conventional ratings.

Autor, David, Caroline Chin, Anna Salomons, and Bryan Seegmiller. “New Frontiers: The Origins and Content of New Work, 1940–2018.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 139(3) (March 2024): 1399–1465.

• Nearly 60% of contemporary job tasks did not exist in 1940. Research by Blueprint Co-Director David Autor, Research Associate Caroline Chin, and co-authors analyzes the impact of innovation on the emergence of new work. Innovations that augment work create new job tasks, boosting demand for labor. In contrast, innovations that automate existing tasks slow the emergence of new work.

Yu, Feiyang, Alex Moehring, Oishi Banerjee, Tobias Salz, Nikhil Agarwal, Pranav Rajpurkar. “Heterogeneity and Predictors of the Effects of AI Assistance on Radiologists.” Nature Medicine 30 (March 2024): 837–849.

• Collaboration between AI and human clinical expertise may improve diagnoses in health care, but AI’s impact may vary dramatically from clinician to clinician. In a recent study of 140 radiologists, Blueprint Co-Director Nikhil Agarwal, Affiliates Alex Moehring and Tobias Salz, and co-authors examine which factors predict AI’s impact on diagnostic performance. The study provides valuable insights on designing collaborations between clinicians and AI. Experience-based factors like years of experience, AI experience, and subspecialty are relatively uninformative, and AI errors harm radiologist performance.

Greenberg, Kyle, Parag Pathak, and Tayfun Sönmez. “Redesigning the US Army’s Branching Process: A Case Study in Minimalist Market Design.” American Economic Review 114(4) (April 2024): 1070–1106.

• Each year, the US Army assigns thousands of cadets to branches. Previously, top-ranked cadets chose their branch first. Over time, the Army added incentives for longer service that led to efficiency, fairness, and transparency issues. In 2021, the Army adopted a new system, designed by Blueprint Co-Director Parag Pathak, Affiliate Kyle Greenberg, and co-author, allowing cadets to clearly rank their preferences and receive an optimal assignment while still incentivizing longer Army stays.

Agarwal, Nikhil, Ray Huang, Alex Moehring, Pranav Rajpurkar, Tobias Salz, and Feiyang Yu. “Comparative Advantage of Humans versus AI in the Long Tail.” AEA Papers and Proceedings 114 (May 2024): 618–622.

• As AI becomes more prevalent, some experts hypothesize that predictive algorithms will not replace humans because they need to learn from many examples. Therefore, they may not correctly predict outcomes in rare cases. For example, a human may be able to diagnose a rare disease better than an algorithm can. Research from Blueprint Co-Director Nikhil Agarwal, Affiliates Alex Moehring and Tobias Salz, Fellow Ray Huang, and co-authors examine this hypothesis in radiology, evaluating algorithms that predict diagnoses based on X-rays.

Acemoglu, Daron, David Autor, and Christina Patterson. “Bottlenecks: Sectoral Imbalances and the US Productivity Slowdown.” NBER Macroeconomics Annual 38 (2024): 153–207.

• Over the last several decades, US productivity growth has stagnated. Research by Blueprint Co-Director David Autor, Affiliate Daron Acemoglu, and co-author finds that the slowdown is partly due to imbalanced innovation across sectors. While information, communications technology, and electronics have seen rapid innovation, suppliers to these industries have lagged behind. This trend has created bottlenecks, impeding aggregate productivity growth.

Working Papers

• Acemoglu, Daron and Pascual Restrepo. “Automation and Rent Dissipation: Implications for Wages, Inequality, and Productivity.” Blueprint Discussion Paper #2024.04.

• Acemoglu, Daron, Fredric Kong, and Pascual Restrepo. “Tasks at Work: Comparative Advantage, Technology, and Labor Demand.” Blueprint Discussion Paper #2024.08.

• Autor, David, Anne Beck, David Dorn, and Gordon Hanson. “Help for the Heartland? The Employment and Electoral Effects of The Trump Tariffs in the United States.” Blueprint Discussion Paper #2024.01.

• Campos, Christopher. “Social Interactions, Information, and Preferences for Schools: Experimental Evidence from Los Angeles.” Blueprint Discussion Paper #2024.03.

• Cohodes, Sarah and Astrid Pineda. “Diverse Paths to College Success: The Impact of Massachusetts’ Urban and Nonurban Charter Schools on College Trajectories.” Blueprint Discussion Paper #2024.06.
  • Press Coverage: The 74 Million, Education Next

• Corradini, Viola, and Clémence Idoux. “Overcoming Racial Gaps in School Preferences: The Role of Peer Diversity in School Choice.” Blueprint Discussion Paper #2024.05.
  • Policy Brief 

• Mountjoy, Jack. “Marginal Returns to Public Universities.” Blueprint Discussion Paper #2024.02. 
  • Press Coverage: Chicago Booth Review

• Setren, Elizabeth. “Busing to Opportunity? The Impacts of the METCO Voluntary School Desegregation Program on Urban Students of Color.” Blueprint Discussion Paper #2024.07.
  • Press Coverage: Boston Globe, WBUR, TuftsNow, The 74 Million

• Zárate, Román Andrés, Martín Carbajal, María Pía Basurto, and Manuel Barrón. “School Effects on College Outcomes in the Absence of Standardized Tests: The Role of Reputation vs. Effectiveness.” Blueprint Discussion Paper #2024.09.

What’s next in 2025?

The Charter School Research Collaborative will close its third request for proposals on February 5, 2025. We are excited to support more rigorous and actionable charter school research conducted in partnership with practitioners or policymakers. Sign up here to receive the Collaborative’s updates.

We look forward to sharing findings from several exciting studies in 2025, including findings from a project that examines non-test score measures of student success.